Is the UK heading toward a ‘breakup’?

The leaders of Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland met on September 14 in Cardiff, the capital of Wales. In a memorandum of understanding issued after the meeting, the three called on the UK government to prepare for, plan and facilitate constitutional change in each jurisdiction and demanded the right to hold independence referendums. Some British media outlets have described the meeting as "unprecedented," because the three regions are currently governed by the Scottish National Party, Plaid Cymru and Sinn Fein, respectively, all of which advocate either independence or constitutional separation. This political configuration is unprecedented in modern British history.

The question now is whether the three regions can turn their calls for independence from the UK into reality and, as some media have warned, set the UK on a path toward "breakup." However, the process is unlikely to be that straightforward. After all, the pro-independence positions of the three governing parties are one thing; the legal procedures and popular support required for leaving the UK are another.

Historically, separatist sentiments have long existed in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland, although their intensity has varied over time, and the circumstances in each region are different. Although all three are constituent parts of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, which is a unitary state in constitutional terms, their historical evolution as political entities has followed different paths.